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Here are a couple of tables showing the way the numbers really stack up if you take the spammers' own instructions and stated return rates and use them consistently through the plan, and if you actually got participation at the rate they claim.

This gets a little confusing, because the spammers (obviously) don't know themselves what kind of figures they are dealing with. Some say post 200 articles each. Some say 250. Some say you get a 1 in 50 return (2%), others say you get 2.5%, some don't say at all. Almost all invariably claim you get 5 responses for your first posting of articles, but then further on in their own math they change that return rate to a much higher figure (without telling you they have, or how or why it happens, of course).

I have included 2 tables, therefore - one at 250 posts with a 2.0% return (1 in 50) consistently, and one at 200 posts with a 2.5% return (1 in 40) consistently throughout. After all, why would the other people in your little scheme get a better return rate than you would?

In addition, some interesting figures are given on the number of postings going on and the amount of data storage and transmission resources required to handle the messages on Usenet. These data calculations make the assumption of an average 200 line article (these can vary from about 70 to over 400, but the average ones I have seen are about 200 lines) at 73 characters per line. It also assumes that Multi-Posting, rather than Cross-Posting is being used, as this is the method being taught in the articles themselves in most cases. Imagine, if you will, the cost of this even if each megabyte of data transmitted and stored cost only 1 penny total spread out across all the service providers in the world.

These tables are extended out to 15 iterations (cycles) to show how quickly this stupid idea would become totally unworkable, if indeed it did work in the first place.

Please note that these numbers represent only one chain letter thread, not the hundreds of them that are running around Usenet.

250 Posts by Each Participant with 2% Return Rate

Iteration Number of People Involved Number of Usenet Posts (at recommended 250 per person) Actual Amount of Money Made (At stated 2% return rate) Storage Space/Data Transmission Requirements in Megabytes
1 1 250 $5 4.35
2 5 1,250 $25 21.76
3 25 6,250 $125 108.78
4 125 31,250 $625 543.89
5 625 156,250 $3,125 2,719.46


This is where you drop off the list
6 3,125 781,250 $15,625 13,597.31
7 15,625 3,906,250 $78,125 67,986.55
8 78,125 19,531,250 $390,625 339,932.74
9 390,625 97,656,250 $1,953,125 1,699,663.70
10 1,953,125 488,281,250 $9,765,625 8,498,318.49
11 9,765,625 2,441,406,250 $48,828,125 42,491,592.47
12 48,828,125 12,207,031,250 $244,140,625 212,457,962.33
13 244,140,625 61,035,156,250 $1,220,703,125 1,062,289,811.67
14 1,220,703,125 305,175,781,250 $6,103,515,625 5,311,449,058.35
15 6,103,515,625 1,525,878,906,250 $30,517,578,125 26,557,245,291.77



200 Posts by Each Participant With 2.5% Return Rate

Iteration Number of People Involved Number of Usenet Posts (at recommended 200 per person) Actual Amount of Money Made (At stated 2.5% return rate) Storage Space/Data Transmission Requirements in Megabytes
1 1 200 $5 2.78
2 5 1,000 $25 13.92
3 25 5,000 $125 69.62
4 125 25,000 $625 348.09
5 625 125,000 $3,125 1,740.46


This is where you drop off the list
6 3,125 625,000 $15,625 8,702.28
7 15,625 3,125,000 $78,125 43,511.39
8 78,125 15,625,000 $390,625 217,556.95
9 390,625 78,125,000 $1,953,125 1,087,784.77
10 1,953,125 390,625,000 $9,765,625 5,438,923.84
11 9,765,625 1,953,125,000 $48,828,125 27,194,619.18
12 48,828,125 9,765,625,000 $244,140,625 135,973,095.89
13 244,140,625 48,828,125,000 $1,220,703,125 679,865,479.47
14 1,220,703,125 244,140,625,000 $6,103,515,625 3,399,327,397.35
15 6,103,515,625 1,220,703,125,000 $30,517,578,125 16,996,636,986.73

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